Can the price of polyester filament hold up?

Since last year, the home textile market has ushered in a golden period of development as the engine of the export growth of textile and apparel products. Many home textile companies have received large dividend support, and the production capacity of home textiles has also ushered in explosive growth, and the time is in the second half of the year. However, the home textile market seems to be unsatisfactory!

According to customs statistics, from January to July, our country's textile product exports were US$18.44 billion, an increase of 44.8% year-on-year, but the cumulative growth rate has slowed by 10 percentage points from January to June, and is still an increase of 19.8% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export of home textile products to the United States in the first July was US$6.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 53.7%, but the cumulative increase was 12% lower than the previous six months; exports to the EU were US$2.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%, but the cumulative increase was higher than the previous It narrowed by 7 percentage points in 6 months. In July, the export of textile products in our country also dropped sharply after the "double decline" in the export growth rate of my country's textile and clothing exports. According to the feedback from trading enterprises in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Guangdong and other places in August, the export of home textile products did not show any improvement, and the growth rate is expected. It will fall further year-on-year.

Home textiles as an engine for the export growth of textile and apparel products

First, since May, major textile countries such as India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan have forcibly started the textile and garment industry to resume work and production under the premise that the epidemic has eased slightly, and some home textile orders that have returned or are returning to China, Vietnam, etc. have quickly returned. withdraw;

Second, the export grades of home textile products, low profits, and low added value. Under the premise that the cotton yarn period of June, July and August is rising sharply, home textile enterprises and foreign trade exporters are simply unable to accept, digest, receive orders, and export enthusiasm. Continue to fall

Third, the sea freight rate has risen sharply and the situation of "unfinished one ticket" for containers and space is still fermenting. For the export of low-profit home textile products, the phenomenon of "flour is more expensive than bread" is increasing, because the shipping schedule cannot be determined. , Arrival/unloading period has been significantly extended (some ports in the United States and Europe require 10-20 days), and foreign buyers have generally insufficient confidence in placing orders and Chinese manufacturers in receiving orders;

Fourth, the RMB exchange rate in July generally fluctuated within a narrow range (the median price at the end of the month closed at 6.4602, basically the same as 6.4601 at the end of the previous month), and the direction was uncertain. Home textile companies became more worried about the appreciation of the RMB in the second half of 2021.

The traditional peak season has come, but the export growth engine has stepped on the brakes

Taking polyester filament POY150D/48F as an example, the average market price in August was 7,548 yuan/ton, a drop of 2.7% from the month-on-month average. The low point of POY appeared in January, and the monthly average price was 6,069 yuan/ton, and the high point appeared in July. , The monthly average price is 7756 yuan/ton, and the promotion frequency has accelerated since mid-July, and the focus of POY negotiations has continued to drop. However, compared with the price at the beginning of the year, the current POY price has not yet reached a low point, although the polymer raw materials have increased by 30% compared with the beginning of the year. Nearby, but the average cash flow of POY in August is also higher than the level at the beginning of the year. Therefore, for downstream users, it has not yet reached the stage of concentrated bottom hunting, and it is still mainly replenishment in stages.

After the promotion at the end of the month, some downstream users’ purchases were around one week, and there is no purchase intention in the short term after the centralized replenishment. Therefore, the polyester filament market will enter a state of pricelessness in early September, and with the next wave of purchase cycles When it expires, the market still expects sales promotion. Under the premise of no major change in terminal demand, it is difficult for polyester filaments to reverse the mode of promotional shipments. However, most of the autumn and winter fabrics have been stocked in advance in the second quarter, the demand for polyester filament is overdrawn in advance, and the demand in the peak season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" is also difficult to reflect, and the market still needs to be cautious.

At the beginning of the year and at the end of June, the main driving force for the two rounds of price increases of polyester filaments came from the cost side. Therefore, the market still needs to pay attention to the trend of raw materials in September. In 2021, the new production capacity of the main raw material PTA will still be put into force. Under the background of oversupply, the upward pressure on the PTA period is increasing, and the support for polyester filaments is limited. In the second half of the year, the new investment project of polyester filament is expected to be more than 2 million tons. Even if the newly launched water jet looms and texturing machines in northern Jiangsu and other places are put into use as scheduled, considering the current terminal textile and clothing order situation, the overall demand is difficult to increase. Therefore, there is no shortage of some polyester filament companies to start the second round of production reduction plans to insure their prices.