English Views: 2 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2022-02-18 Origin: Site
Many economists have predicted in the last month of last year that the economic situation this year is not as optimistic as last year. February 7 is the first trading day of the Year of the Tiger, and it is also the first day of many textile factories. Performance is concerned. As the first trading day after the holiday, the futures market did not disappoint. At the beginning of the Year of the Tiger, we sent everyone a red envelope for the Spring Festival. Although the spot market has not yet moved, the futures market has moved ahead. Perhaps everyone is eager to know the future market trend. , Regarding the start-up of post-holiday orders and the transmission of Khmer prices to the downstream of the industry, I would like to express my opinion: the plan of the year lies in the spring, and this time is the key beginning of the year. What is more important than building confidence!
During the domestic Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. Cotton Export Weekly Report showed that the export shipments of upland cotton reached an annual high during the reporting period, and the market continued to be optimistic about the demand for U.S. cotton. Due to the high domestic cotton price in China, cotton companies were more willing to choose foreign cotton. In addition, it is not excluded that The possibility of increased Chinese demand for U.S. cotton due to the implementation of the U.S. ban on imports of Xinjiang products. Due to the loosening of domestic epidemic prevention policies, orders for textile clothing in Vietnam have increased significantly, and due to the impact of the Chinese New Year holiday, some orders have been transferred to Vietnam, which has greatly increased the demand for cotton. Stimulated by factors such as the USDA export sales report exceeding expectations, the US cotton export sales report released on February 4 was bullish, and the report showed that China's import demand for US cotton was strong. Therefore, during the Spring Festival holiday, U.S. cotton rose sharply, setting a new high in the past ten years, with a cumulative increase of 3.83%.
Figure: Recent ICE cotton market performance
Since the beginning of this year, affected by supply and demand, the price of crude oil has continued to rise, and US oil and Brent oil have also handed over "hot answers" during the Spring Festival holiday. Affected by the geopolitical factors of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil futures prices showed a strong performance, and the severe cold weather in the United States may cause some oil wells to stop production. The EIA report showed that the US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 1 million barrels. Under the effect of multiple positive factors, crude oil futures prices once again hit 2014 The new high since the end of September this year, reaching as high as 93.17 US dollars per barrel, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 5%, the weekly rise for the seventh consecutive week, helping bulk commodities to strengthen, polyester and polyester staple fiber in the case of continuous rise in crude oil, also With further support, polyester staple fiber is expected to maintain a strong running trend.
Due to the continued strong rise of international cotton prices, the Indian Ministry of Finance said that the cancellation of the 10% cotton import tariff will not be considered for the time being. During the holiday, domestic spot quotations in India have repeatedly hit new highs. The S-6 ginning price is currently quoted at Rs 78,400/candi, or 134 cents/lb.
On the first day of the opening of the Year of the Tiger, the futures market collectively rose, and domestic futures closed generally higher, led by the energy and oil sectors. LPG rose 10%, rapeseed meal, soybean meal, soybean 2 rose 8%, asphalt, low-sulfur fuel oil, PVC, PTA, plastic, glass rose 5%, crude oil, PP, soda ash, urea, thermal coal, ferrosilicon, apple rose 4% %, soybean oil, palm oil, staple fiber, TSR 20, pulp, fuel oil, Shanghai nickel rose 3%.
Driven by optimism, Zheng cotton rose rapidly by more than 2% this morning, hitting a new high in more than three and a half months. The closing price was 22,005 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.88%. The main force of cotton yarn futures also followed Zheng Mian to strengthen, and the closing price was 29,255 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.51%.
Chart: Recent market performance of Zheng cotton yarn
According to the situation in previous years, the futures market after the Spring Festival was greatly affected by the flow of funds. Today, the overall boom in the futures market has shown that capital is optimistic about the domestic futures market. The high cotton price in India and the strong rise in US cotton have a driving effect on domestic cotton prices. , the overall strong trend of international cotton prices may help Zheng cotton to go up to a certain extent.
On the first day of construction, the spot market has yet to see the start of orders. If the futures market continues to be strong, there is no doubt that it will drive the spot market to strengthen.
Last winter, the domestic market was affected by the re-emergence of the epidemic such as Omicron, and consumption was affected. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2021, the domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles above the designated size decreased by 2.3% year-on-year. It is the fifth consecutive month of negative growth since 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in 2021, and an average growth of 3.05% in the two years. Perhaps this year's textile spot market will start later than last year. Downstream orders are the first factor for the market to start after the holiday this year. As cotton prices continue to strengthen, I hope that the textile industry will absorb the lack of market conditions caused by the poor transmission of Khmer cotton prices last year. The experience and lessons of early closing due to order support. After the Spring Festival, "gold three silver four" is the traditional textile peak season. At present, China is still in the atmosphere of the Spring Festival holiday, and it will take time for textile factories to start up and resume production. This year's market may start later than last year, and with the support of foreign cotton prices and high processing costs, domestic high cotton prices may continue to repeat. It is hoped that after the Spring Festival, as domestic textile enterprises resume work and production, the upstream raw material market can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream. , and the replenishment of the middle and lower reaches further supports the strength of cotton prices. With the continuous resumption of cotton spinning enterprises, after the spinning mill just needs to replenish the warehouse, the cost of cotton yarn will rise, and the cotton yarn spot market may usher in a substantial rise in the market. It is necessary to observe the downstream order placement and the acceptance capacity of the weaving mill.
